In developed countries, traffic practically free to move capital without restriction. Meanwhile, more and more developing countries are following in the footsteps of traffic liberalize capital. If in the 1970s only 20 percent of emerging market countries classified as liberal in the traffic of their capital, today has more than doubled.
Money and other financial instruments no longer just as the support of the real production sector, but has been transformed as a commodity trading, bred bred double in a short time. Financial products with a variety of derivatives to produce the pseudo expansion of world capitalism.
That's what happened today in the United States and spread to other developed countries because their peers are related to one another. U.S. financial crisis at the same time also indicates that market mechanisms still perform its role, namely correcting actors that are not subject to the rules of market fundamentals.
How could the U.S. economy for years to finance the Iraq War, leaving a deficit budget (APBN) continues to billow, and in the same period foreign trade deficit. Meanwhile, U.S. public saving rate is very low, household debt has exceeded disposable income (disposable income). To finance an extravagant economy, the only way is to continue to owe. The letters continue to issue debt, both by government and private sectors, and then eaten by investors, including from Indonesia.
Capitalism sucker
So, if the U.S. economic turmoil will spread to almost the entire world, it is a consequence of the behavior of the world community that dragged the U.S. into a rhythm game. In fact, the U.S. role in world economy no longer sedigdaya the 1970s. Now that U.S. gross domestic product that has been corrected by purchasing power (purchasing power parity), 21 percent lived alone. On the contrary, has emerged a new force, like China and India.
We are dealing with a process towards a new equilibrium as a consequence of the shift of world economic power. This process will of course be marked by an adjustment to the rules of good behavior and mechanism of a more harmonious and equitable. Pendulum is swinging really, gradually moved away from the financially-driven capitalism that is very ribawi, which produces artificial prosperity and suck because the advanced nature is a zero-sum game, not shared Prosperity.
The lesson for us
We must not let ourselves trapped in a pattern or course of conduct "is greater than the pivot pole", especially when spending that ballooned dominated by consumer spending, as seen from the posture of our national budget. It is unfortunate if the increased revenue to the state budget spent most of central government spending and subsidies not targeted. Deficit spending patterns more so due to no longer be tolerated. Patterns like that's what happened in the U.S..
Central government spending should not rise sharply because of the era of autonomy require postures slimmer central government. Is not the whole function of government, except in five areas as mandated by law, must be submitted to the regions.
Why even after the era of a growing autonomy from Echelon? Why does not the transfer of some functions of the ministry at the independent institutions? The budget deficit can only be justified if it is to increase productive capacity.
The second challenge is to stop the symptoms of premature deindustrialization. Symptoms can be seen from the decrease in manufacturing sector contribution to GDP that has occurred consistently since 2005. In fact, industrialization in Indonesia is still relatively far from optimal.
Indeed the government has pretty much done, but most of the action has been taken so far are extremely outdated. Look at the Presidential Decree on the National Industrial Policy, issued in May 2008 that has no priority. All about to be promoted and offered incentives. The result might be expected, ie there would be no one else in a package of incentives meant to promote certain industries which in turn will boost the performance of the manufacturing industry.
The government also offers the concept of special economic zone (KEK) to advance the industry. KEK concept is virtually obsolete and would not offer anything meaningful for economic progress and national competitiveness. Is not no KEK are almost all aspects of the Indonesian economy has been very liberal?
Relative decline of the industrial sector in turn will weaken the export base. Now it has been proven, as seen from the depreciation of the trade surplus due to decline in commodity prices. Without advancing the manufacturing industry, the same as doing letting the dredging of natural wealth with the creation of added value that will not be perfunctory fulfill the mandate of the Constitution of 1945 Article 33.
Subsequent impact of weakening industrial performance is against the traffic pattern of incoming capital (capital inflow). In the last two years, the incoming capital is more dominated by short-term investments rather than foreign direct investment long term.
If the above trend continues, we might as well volunteer to be prey than financially-driven capitalism was very ferocious.
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